Evaluating Strategies to Reduce Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV Infection in Resource-Limited Countries

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (59 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal tocellsgreaterstage
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyinfectedmultiplekgcd4
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 17726 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Dolutegravir-Containing Versus Efavirenz-Containing Antiretroviral Therapy Regimens in HIV-1-Infected Pregnant Women and Their Infants NCT03048422 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Evaluating Safety and Immune Response to the HIV-1 CH505 Transmitted/Founder gp120 Adjuvanted With GLA-SE in Healthy, HIV-exposed Uninfected Infants NCT04607408 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Early ART to Limit Infection and Establishment of Reservoir NCT02859558 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety and Ability to Induce Immune Responses of HIV-1 Vaccines M3 and M4 Given Alone or in Combination in HIV-infected Adults NCT03844386 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• The LATITUDE Study: Long-Acting Therapy to Improve Treatment SUccess in Daily LifE NCT03635788 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.