Simvastatin Therapy for Moderate and Severe COPD

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (84 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectchronicdefinedto determinedisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantasthmadaystatin
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 43123 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9967 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effect of Fluticasone Furoate/Vilanterol on Survival in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT01313676 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Umeclidinium Bromide/Vilanterol Compared With Fluticasone Propionate/Salmeterol Over 12 Weeks in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01822899 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Umeclidinium/Vilanterol and Fluticasone Propionate/Salmeterol in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01817764 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Fluticasone Furoate/Vilanterol Inhalation Powder (FF/VI) Compared With Vilanterol Inhalation Powder (VI) in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02105974 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Phase IIIb Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Umeclidinium/Vilanterol (UMEC/VI) in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02152605 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.