AZD2171 and Temsirolimus in Patients With Advanced Gynecological Malignancies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecancerheartcellkidney
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationadvancedsafety oflineovarian
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 158 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 312 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• CISPLATIN + AZD-1775 In Breast Cancer NCT03012477 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• AZD5153 in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Solid Tumors, Including Lymphomas NCT03205176 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• AZD1775 for Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01748825 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• MK-2206 and AZD6244 in Patients With Advanced Colorectal Carcinoma NCT01333475 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Refractory Solid Tumors NCT01217450 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.