Confirmatory Study of NeoCart in Knee Cartilage Repair
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-03-31, after 2010-05-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: prior18 yearsgreater thanstudy isthan 18
Phrases that lowered it: kneearticularcartilageefficacy andand safety -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 59 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 59 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Treatment of Articular Cartilage Lesions With CartiLife® NCT03545269 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Neocartilage Implant to Treat Cartilage Lesions of the Knee NCT01400607 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Superiority of MACI® Versus Microfracture Treatment in Patients With Symptomatic Articular Cartilage Defects in the Knee NCT00719576 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Tissue Engineered Nasal Cartilage for Regeneration of Articular Cartilage NCT01605201 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Regeneration of Knee and Ankle Cartilage From Autologous Cartilage Mini-grafts (From the Patient's Own Cells) NCT06897098 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.