Blockade of PD-1 in Conjunction With the Dendritic Cell/Myeloma Vaccines Following Stem Cell Transplantation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpatientsbone marrowcardiactransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinebodymultiplesafety ofvaccines
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 38 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• CT7, MAGE-A3, and WT1 mRNA-electroporated Autologous Langerhans-type Dendritic Cells as Consolidation for Multiple Myeloma Patients Undergoing Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation NCT01995708 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Treated T Cells Followed by a Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT00938626 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Stem Cell Transplantation for Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01526096 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Multi-center Study of Anti-PD-1 During Lymphopenic State After HDT/ASCT for Multiple Myeloma NCT02331368 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Enhancing Anti--Tetanus Vaccine Response After Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation NCT02700841 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.