Bevacizumab + Paclitaxel + Capecitabine in Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerbreastmetastaticchemotherapyher2
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalpositivetrialsfemalefirst line
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 28131 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of Bevacizumab in Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT03577743 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Weekly Paclitaxel/Carboplatin/Bevacizumab as First Line Therapy for Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT00691379 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study of Bevacizumab in Combination With Gemcitabine and Carboplatin in Participants With Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01201265 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Study To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety Of Bevacizumab, and Associated Biomarkers, In Combination With Paclitaxel Compared With Paclitaxel Plus Placebo as First-line Treatment Of Patients With Her2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01663727 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Tivozanib in Combination With Paclitaxel in Patients With Locally Recurrent or Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT01745367 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.