A Dose Ranging Study of AIN457 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque-type Psoriasis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-02-28, after 2010-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: typepatientpatientstreatedmalignancy
Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaquemoderateareahistory or -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 213 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 213 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 235 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- secukinumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- AIN457 Regimen Finding Study in Patients With Moderate to Severe Psoriasis NCT00941031 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Phase II Efficacy Study Looking at a Single-dose of One of Three Dose Levels of AIN457 in Patients With Chronic Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT00770965 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Multiple-loading Dose Regimen Study in Patients With Chronic Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT00805480 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Study of Efficacy and Safety of AK101 in Subjects With Psoriasis NCT05120297 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AK111 Injection in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT06061471 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.