The Effectiveness of Selective Nerve Root Injections in Preventing the Need for Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientto determinetreatingdetermine whetherpain
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatethe investigator65daily
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4000 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Mechanical Diagnosis and Treatment and/or Steroid Injections for Lumbar Radiculopathy NCT02951377 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• SI-6603 (Condoliase) Study for Lumbar Disc Herniation (Discovery 6603 Study) NCT03607838 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• STA363 in the Treatment of Lumbar Disc Herniation NCT06022263 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Symptomatic Lumbar Internal Disc Disruption (IDD) With the Biostat® System NCT01011816 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate Rexlemestrocel-L Alone or Combined With Hyaluronic Acid in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT02412735 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.