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Feasibility Study of BMAC Enhanced CABG

NCT01074099 on ClinicalTrials.gov Phase 1/2 Harvest Technologies (industry) Started 2011-02-28 Terminated
Riskier than 97% of active trials
this trial: 30% 0% 36%

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (49 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

How it ended

Terminated on 2013-04-30, after 2011-02-28 start.

Reason given by the sponsor: “other”

The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start

0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 0123456 yr completed 38% terminated 52%

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

What moved the score

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

The trial

Design

Phase
1/2 (typical: 2)
Number of arms
2
Allocation
randomized
Design
single group (typical: parallel)
Primary purpose
treatment
Blinding
single (typical: none)
Has a data monitoring committee
No (typical: 56% yes)
Responsible party
sponsor
Collaborators
1 (typical: 0)
Keywords listed
0 (typical: 1)

Who can join

Minimum age
18
Maximum age
not given (typical: 71)
Sex
all
Accepts healthy volunteers
No (typical: 9% yes)

Sponsor's track record

Sponsor type
industry (typical: academic or other)
Sponsor's past trials
2 (typical: 32)
Sponsor's past termination rate
50% (typical: 9.9%)
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
1 (typical: 19)

Drug's FDA history

Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
0 (typical: 1)
Drug has FAERS history
No (typical: 64% yes)
Drug's FAERS reports before start
0 (typical: 2148)
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
0 (typical: 412.5)
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
Drug's FAERS reports with a death
no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)

Disease area and drugs

Disease areas
cardiovascular
Drugs matched to FDA substances
none matched

Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.

Similar finished trials

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.