Progression of Renal Interstitial Fibrosis / Tubular Atrophy (IF/TA) According to Epithelial-mesenchymal Transition (EMT) and Immunosuppressive Regimen (Everolimus Based Versus CNI Based) in de Novo Renal Transplant Recipients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpatientpatientsdlsquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: severeopenevaluatemonths beforethe study
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 206 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 12006 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Concentration Controlled Everolimus With Reduced Dose Cyclosporine Versus Mycophenolate Mofetil With Standard Dose Cyclosporine in de Novo Renal Transplant Adult Recipients Treated With Basiliximab and Corticosteroids NCT00658320 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Once-a-day Regimen With Everolimus, Low Dose Cyclosporine and Steroids in Comparison With Steroid Withdrawal or Twice a Day Regimen With Everolimus, Low Dose Cyclosporine and Steroids. NCT01023815 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• REnal Function in Liver Transplantation: Everolimus With Calcineurin Inhibitor (CNI)-Sparing sTrategy NCT02115113 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Immune Monitoring and CNI Withdrawal in Low Risk Recipients of Kidney Transplantation NCT01517984 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Tolerance by Engaging Antigen During Cellular Homeostasis NCT03504241 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.