LUX-Lung 5: Afatinib Plus Weekly Paclitaxel Versus Investigator's Choice of Single Agent Chemotherapy Following Afatinib Monotherapy in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Failing Erlotinib or Gefitinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapystagegreaternsclccancer
  Phrases that lowered it: labeladvancedsafety oftrialpatients who
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 198 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Single-arm Trial of BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) in Demographically and Genotypically Selected NSCLC Patients NCT00730925 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• BIBW2992 (Afatinib) in Advanced (EGFR-FISH +) NSCLC (Non Small Cell Lung Cancer) Patients NCT00796549 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Phase II Trial of BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) in Genetically Pre-screened Cancers With EGFR and/or HER2 Gene Amplification. NCT00748709 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• LUX-Lung 4: BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) Phase I Trial in Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients & Phase II Trial in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Failing Erlotinib or Gefitinib NCT00711594 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• BIBF 1120 in Combination With Pemetrexed in Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00979576 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.