Use of Topical Lidocaine to Reduce Pain in Patients With Diabetic Neuropathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: paincarcinomaiineuropathyliver
  Phrases that lowered it: visitwith typehealthyallergydrugs within
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 49.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 10685 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 0.075% Capsaicin Lotion for the Treatment of Painful Diabetic Neuropathy NCT03113448 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of a Single Application of Capsaicin 8%Transdermal Delivery System Compared to Placebo in Reducing Pain Intensity in Subjects With Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy (PDPN) NCT01533428 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Trial in Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy With GRT3983Y NCT01056315 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Study To Evaluate Efficacy, Safety And Tolerability Of Lyrica In Patients With Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy NCT01332149 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3556050 in Adult Participants With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathic Pain NCT06074562 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.