Hedgehog Inhibitors for Metastatic Adenocarcinoma of the Pancreas
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 32% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-02-17, after 2010-09-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientchemotherapypaclitaxelpatients mustgreater
Phrases that lowered it: gemcitabinediseasesmetastaticto evaluatereceived -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 31.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 89 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 31.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 28 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10269 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2169 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gemcitabine, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Hedgehog Inhibition for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in the Preoperative Setting (HIPPoS) NCT01096732 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
- Gemcitabine Hydrochloride With or Without Vismodegib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01064622 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine + Nab-paclitaxel With LDE-225 (Hedgehog Inhibitor) as Neoadjuvant Therapy for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01431794 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of BC-819 and Gemcitabine in Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01413087 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
- Nab-Pac+Cis+Gem in Pts w Previously Untreated Metastatic PDA NCT01893801 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.