A Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity of Quadrivalent Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (LAIV) in Children

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationdose oftherapyagentslast dose
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzavaccinationreceiptimmunogenicity
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 83 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity of Quadrivalent LAIV in Adults 18 to 49 Years of Age NCT00860067 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Biologicals' Quadrivalent Influenza Candidate Vaccine (GSK2321138A) Manufactured Using a New Process in Adults and Children NCT02207413 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• H5N1 With or Without Topical Aldara in Healthy Adults NCT03472976 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Reactogenicity of DPX-RSV(A), a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine NCT02472548 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• H3N2 M2SR in Pediatric Population NCT03553940 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.