ALK37-003: A Study of RDC-1036 (ALKS 37) in Adults With Opioid-induced Constipation (OIC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painconstipationopioidcancerbowel
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningvisitkgbmimass index
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ALK37-005: A Study of ALKS 37 (RDC-1036) in Adults With Opioid-induced Constipation (OIC) NCT01382797 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of CB-5945 for the Treatment of Opioid-Induced Constipation NCT01696643 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel-Group Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of TD-1211 in Subjects With Opioid-Induced Constipation NCT01459926 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study of Naldemedine (S-297995) for the Treatment of Opioid-Induced Constipation in Adults With Non-Malignant Chronic Pain Receiving Opioid Therapy NCT01443403 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of CB-5945 for the Treatment of Opioid-Induced Constipation NCT01901302 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.