Multiple Dose Escalation Trial Of PF-04308515 In Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 390 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitytolerability pharmacokineticspharmacodynamicspfpharmacokinetics and
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerstabletformulationpharmacokinetic
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 695 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1 Single-Dose Escalation Study of PF-04308515 in Healthy Volunteers NCT00990015 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Multiple-Dose Escalation and Single Dose (Tablet) Study of PF-04171327 in Healthy Volunteers NCT00812825 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study To Assess The Safety, Tolerability And Pharmacokinetics Of PF-06282999 Administered Orally In Healthy Adult Subjects NCT01626976 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study To Evaluate The Safety, Tolerability And Plasma Drug Levels Following A Single Dose Of PF-04995274 In Healthy Adult Volunteers NCT01091272 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Single Dose Study Of PF-06291874 In Healthy Adult Subjects NCT01499017 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.