Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy, With or Without Cetuximab, Followed by Surgery in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerconcurrentradiationeffectiveblock
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsopen labelaccordingesophagealcount
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4533 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 21706 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Paclitaxel, Cisplatin, and Radiation Therapy With or Without Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT00655876 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Local Therapy for Oligorecurrent and Oligometastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03904927 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Cisplatin and 5-FU +/- Panitumumab for Patients With Nonresectable,Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer NCT01627379 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Epirubicin, Oxaliplatin and Fluorouracil (EOF) in Cancer of the Esophagus, Gastroesophageal Junction, or Stomach NCT00601705 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel, Oxaliplatin, Capecitabine, Fluorouracil, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Cancer of the Esophagus or Gastroesophageal Junction NCT00938470 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.