Phase II Study of Afinitor vs. Sutent in Patients With Metastatic Non-Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-04-30, after 2010-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerheartsubjects withradiationcell carcinoma
Phrases that lowered it: small cellopennonlungthe investigator -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 176 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 97 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7341 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3560 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- everolimus, sunitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Everolimus Versus Sunitinib in Non-Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT01185366 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
- Everolimus as Second-line Therapy in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT01491672 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Everolimus and Bevacizumab in Advanced Non-Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) NCT01399918 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Biomarkers Before and After Nephrectomy of Locally Advanced or Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated With Everolimus NCT01715935 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Everolimus (RAD001) For Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) Before Kidney Removal NCT00831480 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.