Study Evaluating a Heated Lidocaine and Tetracaine Topical Patch in the Treatment of Patients With Patellar Tendinopathy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-05-31, after 2010-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: purposeother protocolmay applycriteria mayprotocol defined
Phrases that lowered it: kneevisitthe screeningthe targetused any -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 20 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 13765 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1817 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lidocaine, tetracaine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study Evaluating Heated Lidocaine/Tetracaine Patch in Patients With Pain Associated With Myofascial Trigger Points NCT01106989 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Study Evaluating Heated Lidocaine/Tetracaine Topical Patch in Treatment of Patients With Shoulder Impingement Syndrome NCT01055444 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Synera in Osteoarthritis Pain NCT01654302 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Osteoarthritis Topical Treatment NCT01496326 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Platelet-Rich Plasma (PRP) Injection for the Treatment of Chronic Patellar Tendinopathy NCT01843504 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.