Melatonin and Nighttime Blood Pressure in African Americans--24 mg Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-09-30, after 2010-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pressurehistorythe purposepurpose ofcurrent
Phrases that lowered it: cancerparticipantbreastwomenwork -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 732 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 182 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 11 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 64 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 97 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 61 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 732 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 182 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- melatonin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Melatonin and Nighttime Blood Pressure in African Americans-8 mg Study NCT01114360 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Effects of Melatonin Supplementation on Renal Physiology in a Habitual Sleep Restricted Population. NCT02631148 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
- Allopurinol Improves Heart Function in African Americans With Resistant Hypertension NCT05888233 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Effectiveness of Prazosin on the Urinary Sodium Excretion Response to Mental Stress NCT02431936 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Health Evaluation in African Americans Using RAS Therapy NCT02471833 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.