Diabetes Prevention - Immune Tolerance
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-12-31, after 2009-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellto determineeligiblepriordetermine the
Phrases that lowered it: childrentype diabetestopicalmultipleclinical -
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 4 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 18 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 100% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alum
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase III Study to Investigate the Impact of Diamyd in Patients Newly Diagnosed With Type 1 Diabetes (USA)- DIAPREVENT NCT00751842 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- A Phase III Study to Investigate the Impact of Diamyd in Patients Newly Diagnosed With Type 1 Diabetes (EU) NCT00723411 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- Prevention Trial: Immune-tolerance With Alum-GAD (Diamyd) and Vitamin D3 to Children With Multiple Islet Autoantibodies NCT02387164 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of a Booster Administration of GAD-alum (Diamyd®) in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes NCT05351879 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Fr1da Insulin Intervention NCT02620072 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.