Evaluation of a Test Mouthwash and Dentifrice Regimen in an In-situ Model of Dental Erosion

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsknown orsuspectedhealthdental
  Phrases that lowered it: mlcompareto evaluatefixedrate
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 449 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1012 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 32 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of the Anti-cavity Efficacy of Three Dentifrices Using an Intra-oral Enamel Demineralization - Remineralization In-Situ Model NCT06732518 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• In Situ Caries Efficacy of Fluoride Toothpastes NCT00708097 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Effect of Fluoride in a Dentifrice on Remineralization of Erosive Lesions NCT01641237 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• In Situ Comparison of the Remineralization Potential of Optimized Fluoride Dentifrice With Control Fluoride Dentifrice NCT06010732 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Clinical Study to Evaluate the Anti-cavity Efficacy of Three Dentifrices: An In Situ Model NCT07134231 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.