Reno- and Vascular Protective Effect of a Vitamin-D-analogue in Moderate to Severe Chronic Kidney Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-12-31, after 2010-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: kidney diseasechronic kidneythe purposepurpose ofstudy is
Phrases that lowered it: effectinvestigatebloodpatients withmmhg -
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1691 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 423 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 61.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- paricalcitol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Metabolic Effects of Paricalcitol NCT01003275 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Salt Intake and Antiproteinuric Effect of Paricalcitol in Type 2 Diabetes NCT01393808 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Paricalcitol and Endothelial Function in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients (the PENNY Study) NCT01680198 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- The Effects of Vitamin D Repletion in Vitamin D Deficient Patients With Stage 3 and 4 Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01029002 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D and Arterial Function in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01384539 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.