Pilot Study of Gleevec/Imatinib Mesylate (STI-571, NSC 716051) in Neurofibromatosis (NF1) Patient With Plexiform Neurofibromas

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 41% for any early termination, 23% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mripatients mustpatientchronicmalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacypatients whovitalpatient withtwice daily
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 36.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Imatinib Mesylate in Neurofibromatosis Type I Patients Aged 2 to 21 With Plexiform Neurofibromas NCT02177825 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• MEK Inhibitor PD-0325901 Trial in Adolescents and Adults With NF1 NCT02096471 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Intermittent Dosing Of Selumetinib In Childhood NF1 Associated Tumours NCT03326388 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study of the mTOR Inhibitor Sirolimus in Neurofibromatosis Type 1 Related Plexiform Neurofibromas NCT00634270 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib Paediatric NF1 Japan Study NCT04495127 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.