Lenalidomide and High Dose Melphalan Followed by Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellchemotherapytherapylenalidomidepatients
  Phrases that lowered it: multiplemyelomakghcvhepatitis virus
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 43.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lenalidomide With or Without Dexamethasone in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT00772915 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Low-Dose Azacitidine, Lenalidomide, and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01155583 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide (Revlimid®) Plus Low-dose Dexamethasone (Ld x 4 Cycles) Then Stem Cell Collection Followed by Randomization to Continued Ld or Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT) Plus Maintenance L NCT00807599 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin, Low Freq Dexamethasone & Revlimid (Dd-R) in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (MM) NCT00617591 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Revlimid / All-Trans Retinoic Acid (ATRA) / Dexamethasone in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01985477 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.