Preliminary Evidence of the Efficacy of a Mouthwash Containing 5% Propolis for the Control of Plaque and Gingivitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: individualsevidencetumorsagesoft
  Phrases that lowered it: plaquecontainingextensionsubjectsalcohol
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Propolis Lozenges Extract and Their Effect on Salivary Biomarkers and on Oral Health Condition in (19_24) Years Old NCT06888453 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Comparative Evaluation of Propolis Mouthwash With 0.2% Chlorhexidine Mouthwash in Improving the Periodontitis NCT05870059 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Standardized-propolis Extract (EPP-AF®) Gel Formulation as Buccal Antiseptic NCT02818803 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Effect of a Propolis Tablet on the Saliva and the Amount of Adolescent Dental Plaque Microbes NCT03394729 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Investigation of Clinical Efficacy of a New Mouthwash on Reducing Dental Plaque and Helping Prevent Gum Problems as Compared to a Control Mouthwash NCT07263698 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.