Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Treatment of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-04-30, after 2010-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientto determinecancercellheart failure
Phrases that lowered it: safety ofvisitany clinicallyclinically significantsingle -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 227 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: not given (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- not given (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 227 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 148 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Dose-escalation Safety Trial for Intrathecal Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT01609283 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Escalated Application of Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Patients NCT02987413 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Autologous Multipotent Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in the Treatment of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT03828123 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Intravenous Injection of Adipose Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cell for ALS NCT02492516 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- A Multicenter Phase I/II Clinical Trial to Evaluate Safety of Mesenchymal Stem Cell in Patients With Amyotrophic Sclerosis Lateral NCT02290886 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.