To Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2516 After Multiple Dosing in Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingtolerabilitydosesmultipleto assess
  Phrases that lowered it: kghealthyformulationthe pharmacokineticsindex
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 375 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 829 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single Doses of AZD2516 to Healthy Volunteers NCT00754715 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD1386 NCT00690079 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of Multiple Ascending Doses of AZD5069 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01051505 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 Multiple Doses in Healthy Volunteers NCT00977626 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2066 in Young and Elderly Healthy Subjects NCT00684502 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.