Alisertib in Treating Young Patients With Recurrent or Refractory Solid Tumors or Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiaacutediseaseenrollmentprior
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whommsolidcriteria patientsblood
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 69 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• MK2206 in Treating Younger Patients With Recurrent or Refractory Solid Tumors or Leukemia NCT01231919 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Rb Positive Advanced Solid Tumors, Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, or Histiocytic Disorders With Activating Alterations in Cell Cycle Genes (A Pediatric MATCH Treatment Trial) NCT03526250 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Samotolisib in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Advanced Solid Tumors, Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, or Histiocytic Disorders With TSC or PI3K/MTOR Mutations (A Pediatric MATCH Treatment Trial) NCT03213678 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Crizotinib and Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Younger Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Solid Tumors or Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphoma NCT01606878 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Lorvotuzumab Mertansine in Treating Younger Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Wilms Tumor, Rhabdomyosarcoma, Neuroblastoma, Pleuropulmonary Blastoma, Malignant Peripheral Nerve Sheath Tumor, or Synovial Sarcoma NCT02452554 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.