A Placebo- and Active-Controlled Study of Preladenant in Early Parkinson's Disease (PD) (P05664)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-07-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinecancerprostatehearthepatitis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsand safetyefficacydaily
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 696 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 235 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 111 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Placebo- and Active Controlled Study of Preladenant in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Parkinson's Disease (P04938) NCT01155466 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Placebo Controlled Study of Preladenant in Participants With Moderate to Severe Parkinson's Disease (P07037) NCT01227265 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Dose Finding Study of Preladenant (SCH 420814) for the Treatment of Parkinson's Disease (PD) in Japanese Patients (P06402) NCT01294800 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• An Active-Controlled Extension Study to NCT01155466 [P04938] and NCT01227265 [P07037] (P06153) NCT01215227 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Staccato Apomorphine (AZ-009) in Patients With Parkinson's Disease Experiencing OFF Episodes NCT05979415 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.