Evaluation of AL-78898A in Exudative Age-Related Macular Degeneration
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-04-30, after 2011-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: evidenceprotocolprimarytherapysafe
Phrases that lowered it: history orscreeningto evaluateeffect ofinjection -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 171 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 101 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4141 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2043 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ranibizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- WALTZ - Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) AL-39324 Treatment Examination NCT00992563 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- A Multicenter, Proof-Of-Concept Study Of Intravitreal AL-78898A In Patients With Geographic Atrophy (GA) Associated With Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) NCT01603043 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
- ESBA1008 Safety, Tolerability and Effects in Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) Patients NCT01304693 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- 20089 TA+Lucentis Combo Intravitreal Injections for Treatment of Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) NCT01175395 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- ARC1905 (Anti-C5 Aptamer) Given With Lucentis 0.5 mg In People With Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT00709527 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.