Study of VMP001 and AS01B (Adjuvant Formulation) in Healthy Malaria-Naïve Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 0% of the time (33 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diabetesfirst dosepaindefined ascardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinehealthyvolunteersimmunogenicityvaccination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 46 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: government (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Determine the Effects of an Investigational Malaria Vaccine Given to Adults Living in the United States and Thereafter to Adults Living in Kenya NCT00666380 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Phase 1 Clinical Trial With Controlled Human Malaria Infection (CHMI) to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of the Plasmodium Falciparum Vaccine Candidate FMP012 Administered Intramuscularly With AS01B Adjuvant System in Healthy Malaria-Naïve Adults NCT02174978 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Trial of a Falciparum Malaria Protein (FMP012), E. Coli-expressed PfCelTOS, in Healthy Malaria-Naive Adults NCT01540474 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria Protein 010 (FMP010) Administered With Adjuvant AS01B NCT02458092 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Phase 1/2a Trial of Pf GAP p52-/p36- Sporozoite Malaria Vaccine NCT01024686 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.