A Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Effectiveness of Single Administration Intradiscal rhGDF-5 for the Treatment of Early Stage Lumbar Disc Degeneration

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinemrisubject haschronicin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateindexjointtrial to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Intradiscal rhGDF-5 Phase I/II Clinical Trial NCT00813813 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Effectiveness of Single Administration Intradiscal rhGDF-5 for the Treatment of Early Stage Lumbar Disc Degeneration NCT01182337 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo Controlled, Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Effectiveness of 2 Doses of Intradiscal rhGDF-5 (Single Administration) for the Treatment of Early Stage Lumbar Disc Degeneration NCT01124006 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of IDCT, a Treatment for Symptomatic Lumbar Disc Degeneration NCT03955315 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of YH14618 in Patients With Degenerative Disc Disease NCT02320019 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.