Fulvestrant With or Without AZD6244 in Treating Patients With Advanced Breast Cancer That Progressed After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2tumorstageconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: the triallinethe investigatorproteinprogression
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 141 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 874 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AZD4547 & Anastrozole or Letrozole (NSAIs) in ER+ Breast Cancer Patients Who Have Progressed on NSAIs (RADICAL) NCT01791985 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Study of AZD2014 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Metastatic or Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02216786 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation and Expansion Study of GSK525762 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Participants With Hormone Receptor-positive (HR+)/Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02964507 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• HR+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer and Endocrine Resistance NCT03322215 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Phase III Palbociclib With Endocrine Therapy vs. Capecitabine in HR+/HER2- MBC With Resistance to Aromatase Inhibitors NCT02028507 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.