Japanese Study of Ipilimumab Administered in Combination With Paclitaxel/Carboplatin in Patients With Nonsmall-cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cell lunglung cancernsclcsmall cellstage
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasejapaneseulnhypertensionmm
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 256 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Study for Previously Untreated Subjects With Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) or Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) NCT00527735 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Trial in Squamous Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects Comparing Ipilimumab Plus Paclitaxel and Carboplatin Versus Placebo Plus Paclitaxel and Carboplatin NCT02279732 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab (Part 1); Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab in Combination With Chemotherapy (Part 2) as First Line Therapy in Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02659059 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Trial in Squamous Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects Comparing Ipilimumab Versus Placebo in Addition to Paclitaxel and Carboplatin NCT01285609 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab With Nab-Paclitaxel in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02733250 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.