Pomalidomide, Cyclophosphamide and Prednisone (PCP) in Patients With Multiple Myeloma (MM) Relapsed and/or Refractory to Lenalidomide

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientchemotherapylenalidomiderelapsedmeasurable
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatemmmultipleexaminationcardiovascular
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Allocation: not applicable (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pomalidomide for Lenalidomide for Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT02188368 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
• Study of Pomalidomide, Oral Dexamethasone and Very Low-dose Cyclophosphamide in Patients With Refractory Multiple Myeloma Who Have Received Lenalidomide and Bortezomib NCT04243109 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Study to Determine the Maximum Tolerated Dose for the Combination of Pomalidomide, Bortezomib and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Subjects With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01497093 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Pomalidomide in Gene Expression Profiling (GEP)-Defined High-risk Multiple Myeloma NCT01177735 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Safety of Pomalidomide in Combination With Dexamethasone (Low Dose) in Patients With Refractory or Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01712789 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.