Anticholinergic vs. Botox Comparison Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (169 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-05-31, after 2010-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subject haspatientincontinencesubject isbladder
Phrases that lowered it: investigatorphysicalsubjects whoallergyangle -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 103 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 266 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 103 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- solifenacin, trospium
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Refractory Overactive Bladder: Sacral NEuromodulation v. BoTulinum Toxin Assessment (ROSETTA) NCT01502956 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Over Active Bladder Instillation Study - Botox NCT00667095 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
- Sling vs Botox for Mixed Incontinence NCT04171531 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of BOTOX® or Solifenacin in Patients With Overactive Bladder and Urinary Incontinence NCT01767519 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Different Injection Number of the Same Dose of Botulinum Toxin A on Overactive Bladder Syndrome NCT01657409 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.