Phase II Eltrombopag in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 37% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiapatientschroniclymphocyticlymphoma
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectssafety ofcorticosteroidsthe safetyas determined
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 262 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 38.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Eltrombopag in Thrombocytopenic Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) Patients (CLL2S Study of GCLLSG) NCT01397149 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• A Pilot Study of the Thrombopoietin-Receptor Agonist Eltrombopag in Refractory Aplastic Anemia Patients NCT00922883 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Eltrombopag and the Bcl-extra-large (xL) Pathway in Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT00902018 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Eltrombopag Olamine in Treating Thrombocytopenia in Patients With Chronic Myeloid Leukemia or Myelofibrosis Receiving Tyrosine Kinase Therapy NCT01428635 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Eltrombopag for Post Transplant Thrombocytopenia NCT01000051 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.