To Assess Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics/Pharmacodynamics and the Effect of Fasting After Single Oral Doses of AZD5658 in Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityascendingtypeplacebo controlledblind placebo
  Phrases that lowered it: singleoralsafetyadministrationinvestigate
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 369 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 841 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: single (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate P-Glucose, Safety and Tolerability After Oral Single Dosing of AZD6370 in Type 2 Diabetic Patients NCT00690287 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate Safety and Tolerability After Multiple Oral Doses of AZD1656 in Type 2 Diabetes Patients on Top of Insulin NCT00768105 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and P-Glucose After Multiple Ascending Oral Doses of AZD1656 in Type 2 Diabetes NCT00747175 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Single Ascending Dose Study With Healthy Male Volunteers and Type II Diabetic Patients NCT00886366 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability After Four Weeks of Treatment With AZD1656 in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00856908 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.