A Research Trial of Aralast in New Onset Diabetes (RETAIN)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (651 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2013-07-31, after 2010-10-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 816 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: onsetnewchronicactivedisease
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofpharmacokineticstrialinsulinand safety -
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 35 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 8 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 35 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 816 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 103 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory, digestive, metabolic, immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Effects of Alpha-1 Antitrypsin (AAT) on the Progression of Type 1 Diabetes NCT01319331 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Intravenous Alpha-1 Antitrypsin in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01304537 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Glassia® in Type-1 Diabetes NCT02005848 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Inducing Remission in Type 1 Diabetes With Alefacept NCT00965458 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
- Study of Human Plasma-Derived Alpha1-Proteinase Inhibitor in Subjects With New-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02093221 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.