Ph IIA Study (SOC +/- NS5B)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningkgrandomizationbmschronic
  Phrases that lowered it: genotypecarcinomacancercombinationliver
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 257 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III BMS-790052 Add-On to Peg-Interferon Alfa-2a and Ribavirin in Naive Hepatitis C NCT01448044 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine the Effectiveness and Safety of a Three Drug Antiviral Combination Therapy to Treat Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Infected Patients Not Previously Treated With Currently Available Medications NCT01455090 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Study of the Anti-HCV Drug (BMS-790052) Combined With Peginterferon and Ribavirin in Patients Who Failed Prior Treatment NCT01170962 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study of BMS-650032 With Peginterferon Alfa-2a Plus Ribavirin NCT01030432 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine the Effectiveness of Antiviral Combination Therapy to Treat Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Infected Patients Who Have Previously Failed Standard of Care NCT01012895 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.