Comparison of IN 10 003 to Placebo in Subjects With Insomnia Suffering From Difficulty in Falling Asleep and Staying Asleep

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hoursplaceboonsettimesubject has
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningcomparesubjectsthe efficacydsm iv
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sleep Laboratory Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Neu-P11 in Primary Insomnia Patients NCT01489969 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Polysomnographic Study to Compare the Efficacy of Gastric Retentive Zaleplon Accordion Pill to Placebo in Subjects With Insomnia NCT01277107 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of YZJ-1139 in Primary Chronic Insomnia Disorder NCT06680505 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of JNJ-42847922 in Participants With Insomnia Disorder Without Psychiatric Comorbidity NCT02464046 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A 6-Month Efficacy and Safety Study of Org 50081 in Adult Patients With Chronic Primary Insomnia (21106/P05701/MK-8265-002) NCT00631657 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.