Single Ascending Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD4451

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (289 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 361 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingsafety tolerabilitytolerability andand pharmacokineticsthe safety
  Phrases that lowered it: kgbmimass indexbody massinclusive
• Sponsor's past trials: 856 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Investigate Multiple Ascending Oral Doses of AZD5213 in Healthy Male and Non Fertile Female Subjects NCT01171105 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• AZD6423 SAD/MAD Study in Healthy Volunteers NCT01926366 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• AZD8108 SAD/MAD in Healthy Volunteers NCT02248818 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of AZD9550 Following Single Ascending Dose Administration to Healthy Participants NCT05848440 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of AZD4144 Following Single and Multiple Ascending Doses Via Oral Administration to Healthy Participants NCT06122714 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.