Single-centre, Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Four-way Crossover Clinical Study to Investigate Safety and Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Single Doses of CM3.1-AC100 in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodiabetestypepatientdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: singlepharmacokineticscrossoverboth inclusivemale
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Study to Investigate Safety and Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple Ascending Doses of CM3.1-AC100 in Healthy Male Volunteers NCT01165502 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• XW004 To Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PK, and PD of Oral Ecnoglutide Tablet in Healthy Adults NCT05184322 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Investigate the Safety and the Pharmacokinetic, Pharmacodynamic Characteristics of Two BioChaperone® Glucagon Formulations Compared to Marketed GlucaGen® in Subjects With T1DM NCT03176524 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (the Exposure of the Trial Drug in the Body) and Pharmacodynamics (the Effect of the Investigated Drug on the Body) of Insulin 287 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02964104 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Subcutaneously Administered NNC0148-0287 (Insulin 287) in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02148861 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.