Do Phosphodiesterase 5A Inhibitors Improve Exercise Capacity in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Pulmonary Hypertension?

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularchronicleftimprovems
  Phrases that lowered it: fev1patientsmmhgblood pressuretract
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 36.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tadalafil for Pulmonary Hypertension Due to Chronic Lung Disease NCT01862536 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• The Impact of Udenafil on Exercise Capacity in Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients NCT01364181 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Exercise Oscillatory Breathing and Sildenafil in Heart Failure NCT01185925 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• The Effect of Inhaled Nitric Oxide on Dyspnea and Exercise Tolerance in COPD NCT03679312 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study of Dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) in Respiratory Pulmonary Hypertension in Adults (DHEA-HTAP) NCT01273259 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.