A Study in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: vaccinevaccinescancerstudy ispurpose
  Phrases that lowered it: nasalmoderateparticipants withto severeinhibitors
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 513 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 191 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Rheumatoid Arthritis Study in Participants on a Background Treatment of Methotrexate NCT01198002 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• A Rheumatoid Arthritis Study in Participants NCT01202760 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study for Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate (MTX) With an Inadequate Response to TNFα Inhibitor Therapy NCT00689728 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study for Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Ongoing Methotrexate Therapy NCT00785928 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Safety Study to Evaluate LY3114062 in Participants With Inflammatory Arthritis NCT02144272 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.