Dose Finding Study of Pioglitazone in Children With Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) (PIO)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determineplacebostableivdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: childrentrialsafety ofpatients whoclinical
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 20185 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cariprazine Pediatric ASD PK Study NCT04382885 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Aripiprazole Oral Solution in the Treatment of Children and Adolescents With Autistic Disorder NCT03487770 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Tideglusib vs. Placebo in the Treatment of Adolescents With Autism Spectrum Disorders NCT02586935 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A 12-Week Crossover Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of L1-79 in Subjects Aged 12-21 Years With Autism Spectrum Disorder NCT05067582 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Targeting GABA-A for the Treatment of Social Disability in Young Adults With Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Phase II Proof of Mechanism Trial NCT01966679 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.