CESAR Study in Prostate Cancer With Temsirolimus Added to Standard Docetaxel Therapy (CEPTAS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 29% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-10-31, after 2010-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chemotherapyfailurecreatininedlheart
Phrases that lowered it: periodjudgedpast monthulcerdays before -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4008 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- not given (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4008 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1130 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docetaxel, temsirolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Single Agent Temsirolimus (Torisel®) in Chemotherapy-naïve Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Patients NCT00919035 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Temsirolimus and Vorinostat in Treating Patients With Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT01174199 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Impact of Temsirolimus Therapy on Circulating Tumor Cell Biology In Men With Castration Resistant Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT00887640 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Open-label Dose Escalation Phase 1b Trial of a New Micellar Docetaxel Compound in Patients With mCRPC NCT04629781 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
- Temsirolimus and Bevacizumab in Hormone-Resistant Metastatic Prostate Cancer That Did Not Respond to Chemotherapy NCT01083368 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.