Dose-confirmatory Bridging Study in Total Knee Replacement

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hoursleftcontrastmonths priorundergoing
  Phrases that lowered it: japanesekneeinvestigatoronce dailyefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 342 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-confirmatory Bridging Study in Total Hip Replacement NCT01205932 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Single Intravenous Administration of TB-402 for the Prophylaxis of Venous Thromboembolic Events (VTE) After Total Knee Replacement Surgery NCT00793234 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Safety of DAbigatran and RIvaroxaban Versus NAdroparin in the Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism After Knee Arthroplasty Surgery NCT01431456 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Comparative Study of Prophylactic Agent for Venous Thromboembolism After Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT02271399 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of YM150 in Patients With Knee Replacement Surgery NCT00595426 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.