A Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral MDV3100 in Chemotherapy-Naive Patients With Progressive Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: braincancersmall cellpatientconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andknown orinvestigatorsuspected
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 394 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 790 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of Enzalutamide Versus Bicalutamide in Men With Prostate Cancer NCT01664923 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• An Asian Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Oral Enzalutamide in Progressive Metastatic Prostate Cancer Participants NCT02294461 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Enzalutamide in Patients With Nonmetastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02003924 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study of Enzalutamide Plus Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) Versus Placebo Plus ADT in Patients With Metastatic Hormone Sensitive Prostate Cancer (mHSPC) NCT02677896 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Benefit of Treatment Beyond Progression With Enzalutamide in Men Who Are Starting Treatment With Docetaxel After Worsening of Their Prostate Cancer When Taking Enzalutamide Alone NCT02288247 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.